Market Resolution

When a market closes, the outcome needs to be determined and recorded onchain so winnings can be paid out. Precog uses a two-layer decentralized resolution system: Reality.eth for crowdsourced answers and Kleros as an arbitration backstop if answers are disputed.

No single party, including Precog, controls the outcome. Resolution follows the market’s stated criteria.

How It Works

┌─────────────────────────────┐
│        Market Closes        │
│   (at creator-set deadline) │
└──────────────┬──────────────┘
               │
               ▼
┌─────────────────────────────┐
│  Answer submitted to        │
│  Reality.eth with a bond    │
│  (anyone can submit)        │
└──────────────┬──────────────┘
               │
               ▼
┌─────────────────────────────┐
│  Challenge window opens     │
│  (duration set per market)  │
└──────────┬──────────────────┘
           │
     ┌─────┴─────────────────┐
     │                       │
  No challenge            Challenged
     │                       │
     ▼                       ▼
┌──────────────┐    ┌─────────────────┐
│ Answer is    │    │ Escalates to    │
│ finalized    │    │ Kleros          │
└──────┬───────┘    └────────┬────────┘
       │                     │
       │            ┌────────▼────────┐
       │            │ Jurors review   │
       │            │ evidence & vote │
       │            └────────┬────────┘
       │                     │
       └──────────┬──────────┘
                  │
                  ▼
     ┌────────────────────────┐
     │   Market resolves      │
     │   Winnings claimable   │
     └────────────────────────┘

Reality.eth: Crowdsourced Answers

Reality.eth is a decentralized oracle that determines outcomes by having participants put money where their mouth is.

How bonding works:

After a market closes, anyone can submit an answer by posting a bond (a small deposit)
If someone disagrees, they can challenge by posting a bond at least double the previous one
Each challenge resets the timer
If no challenge is posted before the window expires, the last answer becomes final

The escalating bond mechanism means that submitting a wrong answer is increasingly expensive to maintain. Honest answers tend to survive because it only takes one correct challenger to overturn a wrong one.

Kleros: Arbitration Backstop

If a dispute cannot be resolved through bonding alone (because the answer is genuinely ambiguous or requires interpretation), it escalates to Kleros.

Kleros uses a court of randomly selected, anonymized jurors who review the evidence and vote. Their ruling is final and onchain. Jurors are economically incentivized to rule honestly (voting with the majority earns rewards; voting against loses stake).

This means even edge cases and contested outcomes have a credible, decentralized path to resolution.

Resolution Timeframes

There is no fixed global timer. Each market has its own:

Market close date - when trading stops and the question is evaluated
Challenge window - set per market; the time during which a Reality.eth answer can be disputed

Creators set these when designing the market. Longer windows give more time for disputes but delay payouts. Check the market details page for the specific dates.

Writing Good Resolution Criteria

The most common reason a market fails or gets disputed is vague resolution criteria. Reality.eth answerers need to look at a source and say definitively “yes” or “no.”

Good:

“Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup final, according to the official FIFA full-time result published on July 19, 2026?”

Bad:

“Will Argentina do well at the World Cup?”

Rules of thumb:

Name a specific data source (an official governing body, a published record, a live broadcast result)
Include an exact date and time with timezone
Define what “yes” looks like unambiguously
Anticipate edge cases (what if the event is postponed? what if the match goes to extra time or penalties?)

Outcomes Pricing Mate Markets